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The political/economic transition infers a binary outcome skewed more towards a positive (collaboration with opposition) than negative (intra-Chavismo transition) event risk that favors relative outperformance of the longer versus the shorter tenors.

We reference the declining price differential between the Pd VSA’26 and the Pd VSA’17 (olds) on the reaction to the rumors of a negotiated political transition on June 23 as a preview of the price reaction on confirmation of a political transition.

President Maduro's ratings are low with the economy in shambles: dollar and food/staples shortages and no relief from oil export revenue.

As the public shortages make headlines, fear of bond default has faded as the government keeps up with payments on sovereign debt and state-controlled oil producer Petroleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa).

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